Saturday, January 23, 2010

The NBC Late Night Debacle

Diane,
I just watched the final "Tonight Show with Conan O'Brian" online and I'm pretty depressed about the whole thing. I know, how sad is it that with all the other things I have to worry about and I'm following the situation at NBC so closely. But it's got contractual legal issues, so it's not all wasted time.
If you weren't watching, NBC promised 'The Tonight Show' to 'Late Night' host Conan O'Brian the tonight show way back in 2003, starting in 2009. When the time came to make the change, Jay Leno wasn't ready to retire and NBC didn't want to let him go, so they gave him a 10 PM EST talk show. It was a flop and was cancelled. NBC still didn't want to let Leno go, so they suggested moving Jay to 11:35 and moving 'The Tonight Show' back a half hour. No one was happy with that. Conan refused, so NBC bought him out and moved Leno back to his old gig.
NBC has been taking incredible heat for weeks over this, from all sides, all totally deserved. What they did is short sighted and indecisive. Conan O'Brian's ratings were weaker than Leno's, but the key demographic of young adults (18-49) was growing over the old 'Tonight Show' following. What does this mean? It means that advertisers pony up more cash for TV spots because that's the consumer demographic. The nielsen ratings had a 7 share for Conan's goodbye, and an 8.8 for Leno's back in the spring of last year, but only 3 shows (Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men, and American Idol) did better with young adults last week.
But the numbers don't tell the whole story. Conan is hero to the college set. These people (myself included) are night hawks, out when the show is actually on, and are tech saavy enough to realize that they don't have to be on the couch at 11:30 to see the show. But it doesn't mean that Conan O'Brian isn't important, as has been shown by the outpouring of support these past weeks and the torching of Jay Leno, whether it's his fault or not. These are the people that are buying stuff and it's the group that advertisers fall over each other to reach through the media.
It doesn't seem to matter though. Jay Leno is a proven commodity and brings in bigger Nielsen Ratings, which is catnip for advertisers. It's the only hard numbers that matter and measuring stick for how much networks can charge for airtime. NBC is doing what they feel is best to make the most profit and it's going to work in the very short term. But it's a disaster for them long term. Conan is the future and isn't going to go away.
But where does he go? FOX is a possibility, but they might have a hard time selling affiliates, who see their biggest profits when they air cheap syndicated shows. Those pesky Nielsen numbers are going to continue to matter and weigh heavy on what will be a tough programming decision. Cable would provide a quality alternative, but there likely isn't a good fit that could pay Conan what he was making on NBC...and probably not likely to greenlight a 200 person staff.
So this is what I'm suggesting: Support companies that advertise on Conan's new show. We might not be able to provide a strong Nielsen number because of our flaky lifestyles, but we're really willing to get behind a consumer movement. Drink a soft drink; see a crappy movie; buy a pair of jeans. A boost in the quarterly numbers will scream good investment to these companies and will send a message that the world is changing.
And a final note for NBC: Sit on it and rotate. I will never watch 'The Tonight Show' again.

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